26. Weekly Technical Analysis on BTC, ETH & Altcoins
Analysis of BTC:
This week we saw BTC rangebound between $9009 to $9780 levels.
Along with turbulence on global stock markets, Bitcoin has also revived. Moreover, a direct correlation between the main stock indices and the price of the BTC is traced. Direct correlation means that the fall of one instrument leads to the fall of another.
The price of bitcoin has bounced from the trend inclined at $9800 and is moving impulsively to the lower border of the trading range. This fall can cause a wave of sales on cryptocurrency platforms if the price of BTC drops below $9000. As mentioned earlier, this wave may lower the price to $8000.
We should closely monitor how the price passes the mark of $9,200, because fixing below this mark will mean an exit from the upward channel. Technically, the price is already in a downward trend, because it broke through the moving average.
The main resistance is around $9600. The nearest support is near $8,000.
Bearish signal
Bitcoin price impulsively broke through the lower boundary of the upward range and fixed below it. This is a bearish signal for many traders. The price is still below the moving average, which is already “looking” down.
Now there is a technical correction and retest of the support level for the trend. If the price cannot overcome the moving, then the decline will continue.
Many attribute the fall of the cryptocurrency market to the fall in global stock indices, which fell due to an increase in the number of infected with COVID-19. Another version is based on the information that mining pools began to withdraw bitcoins actively from their wallets and move them to exchanges probably to sell. The last time this happened, the price of bitcoin was adjusted by 10-15%.
There is also CME futures contracts expiry on 26th June which will make BTC prices very volatile. The contract size is more than a Billion dollar (Futures and Options contracts for both BTC & ETH). Although the technicals are suggesting the BTC prices to go down, it is better not to open any short positions until a break down below $8900 levels.
In any case, different factors indicate the fall. The nearest support is near $8000.
Support: 8910, 8550, 8290, 8000$
Resistance: 9550, 9700, 10000, 10350$
Analysis of Ethereum:
In the last 10 days, ETH has made a low of $218 and a high of $249 which is a steady movement. If we see closely then there has been a big rally in the DeFi (Decentralised Finance) space. This has kept ETH in the driver seat. At the time of writing this article, ETH is trading at $233.
As we can see in the charts, the support is at $230 which is the 200 simple moving average (SMA). If this support is broken then ETH will find its strong support at $218 which it tested last week. It should be able to rebound back from those levels but in case of further breakdown, we can see ETH at $190 which has been strong support on the technical charts for the past few weeks. There is CME expiry which can affect the prices of ETH as the markets get volatile so trade only with strict stop losses. On the upside, we will face resistance at $250 and then at $279.
ETH lately has been driven by fundamental news. Thanks to mass adoption of DeFi which is getting more and more popular among users due to the incompetence of banks and financial institutions. Ethereum Blockchain is by far the most advanced, stable network to host any decentralised smart contracts so they will always have an edge and with the ETH 2.0 coming closer, this coin which is the second biggest in terms of market capitalisation will always be favourite for investors as well as for traders.
Support: 230, 218, 190, 175$
Resistance: 250, 279, 300, 321$
Analysis of Altcoins:
The rally continues this week too and I expect the rally to stop when BTC makes some big moves either on the upside or the downside. There are many coins which have gone up without any reason. You should carefully analyse the coins before you buy because sometimes they can give you very good profit but in case if you get stuck with some then you might have to hold them for rest of your life.
Always ask yourself if the news based on which you are buying the coin makes any impact on the project or not. Ff the team has the credibility of delivering the promises historically or not, then you can make an entry else please stay away from most of the coins as they do not have any use case. There are quality coins which are available at lows and have great potential to move in the coming days as they have news that will be good for their project and also they have strong fundamentals behind the project.
I recommended some coins in the last three weeks which has gone up from anywhere between 10-100% (XVG even went beyond 100%). Two or three coins did not do well and two coins have not gone up but they will soon be making some positive gains.
Coins that can good for the short term are as follows:
MCO, GVT, ELF, STEEM
The information provided on this website does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the article’s content as such. Author, website or the company associated with them does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Guruprasad Venkatesha is Co-Founder & CEO of b-cube.ai, French-Hungarian startup making trading in cryptocurrencies easier & more profitable using AI/ML and complex mathematical models. He started his first asset management company when he was 16 years old and had a successful exit later. Then he went on to work for Morgan Stanley as an Investment analyst then he quit the job to jump into the world of Cryptocurrencies.
You can follow him the following social media channels:
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